2nd August 2013
EUROLYTICS
The ECB rate decision proved uneventful yesterday as Mr Draghi provided the standard response to the Euro problem “we will do whatever it takes.” Interest rates in the euro zone stayed firmly fixed at 0.50% as the committee starts its summer holidays.
The same thing happened last year; all issues are forgotten prior to Draghi jumping on a plane to go and sun himself. Whether he is helping bolster tourism in Spain, Italy, Portugal or Greece, it will do very little to help cover their huge debt repayments or cut their ever increasing unemployment levels. This is typical of euro politics in that they try and play down issues to the point where they think if everyone ignores it long enough the issue doesn’t really exist.
The neckline of the head and shoulders pattern starts around the 1.3100 level and if we hit that we could see 1.2700 very quickly. The fact most of Europe is on holiday and has been for the last 4 years means that very little should happen until September but with low volumes and thin markets a very little can go move the market considerably .
昨天的英国央行利率决议没有意外,对于欧元问题,德拉吉先生做出了回应“我们将竭尽所能”。欧元区利率稳定在0.50%,委员会开始放暑假了。
去年同样如此;所有的问题都被置诸脑后,德拉吉优先乘飞机去晒太阳。他会对旅游业有所助益?西班牙、意大利、葡萄牙还是希腊?对于他们巨额债务的偿还,以及日益严重的失业水平,恐怕没什么帮助。这是典型的欧元政治,他们试图将问题大而化小,他们希望每个人都将其忽略,那么,问题就不存在了。
头肩形态在1.3100附近开始,可能会迅速触及1.2700。欧洲人都在度假,而且连续4年,9月份之前都没有什么事情发生,但是当前市场很脆弱,交易量低,一个小事件也可能引起波动。